RESEARCH REPORT
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
SMCI
$32.95
As of 2026-11-01
Research note — 2026-11-01. Educational analysis, not financial advice.
The one-line version
Super Micro Computer, Inc. trades near $32.95 on a trailing multiple of about 10.1x versus its own 5-year median near 9.3x, against contested Street targets and the usual concentration and execution risks. That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
1. What you're paying
| Now | Its own 5-year median | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | ~10.1 | ~9.3 | +8% |
| P/E (forward) | ~5.8 | — | — |
| EPS (TTM) | 3.26 | — | — |
| Gross margin | 10.8% | — | — |
What that means in plain terms: the gap versus the company's own history is the growth or durability the market is already pricing. It is not automatically wrong — it is the bet.
Fair-value anchors on file:
- 5-year median P/E multiple: $30.48 — Applies the 5-year median multiple (9.3x) to trailing EPS.
- Street mean target: $43.27 — Average published analyst target.
- Street target midpoint: $37.50 — Midpoint of $15.00–$60.00 published range.
Street targets run from $15.00 to $60.00. A wide spread means the name is contested, not consensus.
2. What the bulls are counting on
- Apple, Super Micro, AMD, Palantir Step Up To Earnings Plate After Tech bearish-Off
- Dell Sinks 11% as Intel’s Warning on PC Slump and Memory Shortage Hits Hardware Stocks; HP Tumbles 9%, Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Super Micro Fall 7%
- Alphabet Posts Worst Week Since 2011, Intel Suffers Record Crash as Warsh Sees 'Cracks': This Week on Wall Street
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
3. What the bears see
- Should You bullish, bearish or neutral SMCI Stock Before Q1 Earnings?
- Sandisk shares are trading higher after Evercore ISI Group initiated coverage on the stock with an Outperform rating and announced a $1,200 price target.
- 3 Great Growth Stocks To Own In October 2026
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
4. What would have to be true
For the stock to justify ~10.1x rather than its 5-year ~9.3x, roughly all of the following need to neutral:
- Growth or margin durability shows up in the next several reports, not just in narrative.
- Key revenue concentrations survive competitive and regulatory pressure.
- Execution on the current product or services cycle stays on schedule.
- The Street target range compresses as results clarify the contested assumptions.
Ask yourself honestly: how many of those would you bet on individually? Multiply your answers together.
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
5. What to watch next
- Next earnings date: 2026-11-03
- Trailing and forward multiples versus the company's own history
- Segment growth rates in the next 10-Q / earnings release
- Material Form 4 and 13F changes
- Whether the Street high-to-low target spread narrows or widens
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
6. What this note does not do
It doesn't tell you to buy or sell. It won't, ever.
You have the valuation in context, the strongest version of both cases, and the specific assumptions the current price depends on. What you do with that depends on your time horizon, your existing exposure, your risk tolerance, and what else you could do with the money — none of which we know.
If you want someone to tell you what to do, you want a licensed financial adviser, and that is a genuinely reasonable thing to want.
Educational and informational purposes only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. GetStockReport is not a registered investment adviser. Figures are as of 2026-11-01 and go stale quickly — verify against primary sources before acting. All investments carry risk including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
8. Analyst ratings & targets
No recent activity
Analyst opinions change frequently. Past upgrades do not predict future returns.
9. Important news
Nov 4, 2026|Super Micro Falls 4% Despite Blowout Quarter as Margin Worries and Data Center Backlash Weigh; Dell Sinks 8%, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Drops 6%(Yahoo)
Super Micro's blowout earnings sent the stock tumbling instead of soaring, and the reason involves a collision of shrinking margins, one enormous customer, and a wave of ballot measures that could reshape where AI gets built.
Nov 4, 2026|Micron Leads Three AI Memory Stocks With Major Upside Potential(Yahoo)
AMD reported 45% revenue growth, while Supermicro nearly quadrupled quarterly sales.
Nov 4, 2026|Does The Move In Hewlett Packard Enterprise Stock Change Anything?(Yahoo)
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Nov 4, 2026|Super Micro's Revenue Soars 298%. One Number Raises Questions(Yahoo)
The AI server maker reported a sharp increase in revenue and earnings, supported by large-scale data-center deployments.
Nov 4, 2026|BC-Most Active Stocks(Yahoo)
NEW YORK (AP) — prices for the Nasdaq composite, NYSE and NYSE American listed most active stocks. Nasdaq most active stocks:Stock Name Volume High Low Last Change Curis Inc.
News headlines are reported as-is. Verify important claims with original sources.
10. Insider Form 4 activity
| Date | Executive | Action | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara | Sell | 10,000 | $0 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara | Sell | 5,453 | $0 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Liang Charles (President and CEO) | Sell | 10,000 | $0 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Liang Charles (President and CEO) | Sell | 5,453 | $0 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Cheung Kenneth (SVP, Chief Accounting Officer) | Sell | 6,000 | $0 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Xiao Jin (Sr. Corporate VP, Engineering) | Sell | 9,000 | $0 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Thauberger Matthew (Chief Revenue Officer) | Sell | 10,000 | $0 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Malyala Vikranth (SVP, Chief Business Officer) | Sell | 14,000 | $0 |
Form 4 filings are routine transactions. Scheduled sales (10b5-1 plans) are normal and not signals.
11. Institutional 13F holdings
| Fund | Shares | Position | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | 12,160 | $10.0B | — |
| Vanguard Group | 245,940 | $7.2B | — |
| State Street | 24,635,554 | $722.6M | — |
| BlackRock Institutional Trust | 21,532 | $604,000 | — |
These are 45-day lagged filings (SEC requirement). Position changes happened in the past.
12. Earnings this week
No recent activity
Earnings dates are estimates and may shift. EPS estimates are consensus, not predictions.