RESEARCH REPORT
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
PYPL
$52.41
As of 2026-09-20
Research note — 2026-09-20. Educational analysis, not financial advice.
The one-line version
PayPal Holdings, Inc. trades near $52.41 on a trailing multiple of about 9.9x versus its own 5-year median near 10.9x, against contested Street targets and the usual concentration and execution risks. That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
1. What you're paying
| Now | Its own 5-year median | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | ~9.9 | ~10.9 | -9% |
| P/E (forward) | ~9.1 | — | — |
| EPS (TTM) | 5.29 | — | — |
| Gross margin | 40.5% | — | — |
What that means in plain terms: the gap versus the company's own history is the growth or durability the market is already pricing. It is not automatically wrong — it is the bet.
Fair-value anchors on file:
- 5-year median P/E multiple: $57.87 — Applies the 5-year median multiple (10.9x) to trailing EPS.
- Street mean target: $57.07 — Average published analyst target.
- Street target midpoint: $58.00 — Midpoint of $36.00–$80.00 published range.
Street targets run from $36.00 to $80.00. A wide spread means the name is contested, not consensus.
2. What the bulls are counting on
- Visa’s Stablecoin Settlements Grew 15 Times in a Year. Is the Stock Still a bullish Near $370?
- 500th Episode: participating Tips from 11 Years of Podcasting About Stocks
- Can PayPal World Drive Deeper Customer Engagement?
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
3. What the bears see
- Here's How Affirm's AI Upgrade Could Strengthen Credit Underwriting
- PayPal: Valuation Realities, Takeover Bid, And Option Dynamics
- PayPal (PYPL) Stock Gets Fair Value Trim As Analysts Weigh Q2 And Deal Uncertainty
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
4. What would have to be true
For the stock to justify ~9.9x rather than its 5-year ~10.9x, roughly all of the following need to neutral:
- Growth or margin durability shows up in the next several reports, not just in narrative.
- Key revenue concentrations survive competitive and regulatory pressure.
- Execution on the current product or services cycle stays on schedule.
- The Street target range compresses as results clarify the contested assumptions.
Ask yourself honestly: how many of those would you bet on individually? Multiply your answers together.
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
5. What to watch next
- Next earnings date: 2026-10-27
- Trailing and forward multiples versus the company's own history
- Segment growth rates in the next 10-Q / earnings release
- Material Form 4 and 13F changes
- Whether the Street high-to-low target spread narrows or widens
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
6. What this note does not do
It doesn't tell you to buy or sell. It won't, ever.
You have the valuation in context, the strongest version of both cases, and the specific assumptions the current price depends on. What you do with that depends on your time horizon, your existing exposure, your risk tolerance, and what else you could do with the money — none of which we know.
If you want someone to tell you what to do, you want a licensed financial adviser, and that is a genuinely reasonable thing to want.
Educational and informational purposes only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. GetStockReport is not a registered investment adviser. Figures are as of 2026-09-20 and go stale quickly — verify against primary sources before acting. All investments carry risk including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
8. Analyst ratings & targets
No recent activity
Analyst opinions change frequently. Past upgrades do not predict future returns.
9. Important news
Sep 18, 2026|Visa’s Stablecoin Settlements Grew 15 Times in a Year. Is the Stock Still a Buy Near $370?(Yahoo)
Visa just posted a fifteenfold jump on a new payment rail while its core business hits records, but the real question is whether stablecoins strengthen its network grip or quietly erode the economics that justify trading near all-time highs.
Sep 18, 2026|500th Episode: Investing Tips from 11 Years of Podcasting About Stocks(Yahoo)
Bulls and bears, COVID, a banking crisis, and the AI Revolution. What stocks stand out over the last 11 years?
Sep 18, 2026|Can PayPal World Drive Deeper Customer Engagement?(Yahoo)
PayPal World is gaining traction as PYPL seeks to boost transaction activity, deepen engagement and drive monetization across its ecosystem.
Sep 18, 2026|Here's How Affirm's AI Upgrade Could Strengthen Credit Underwriting(Yahoo)
AFRM's new AI model uses 14 years of data to expand credit approvals, boost completed purchases and improve early loan performance.
Sep 18, 2026|PayPal: Valuation Realities, Takeover Bid, And Option Dynamics(SeekingAlpha)
News headlines are reported as-is. Verify important claims with original sources.
10. Insider Form 4 activity
| Date | Executive | Action | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Miller Jamie S (Chief Fin & Op Officer) | Sell | 9,094 | $0 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Miller Jamie S (Chief Fin & Op Officer) | Sell | 2,910 | $0 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Miller Jamie S (Chief Fin & Op Officer) | Sell | 6,129 | $331,149.87 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Miller Jamie S (Chief Fin & Op Officer) | Sell | 9,094 | $0 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Miller Jamie S (Chief Fin & Op Officer) | Sell | 2,910 | $0 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Natali Chris (SVP, Chief Accounting Officer) | Sell | 552 | $30,249.6 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Kereere Suzan (President, Global Markets) | Sell | 1,100 | $59,981.02 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Kereere Suzan (President, Global Markets) | Sell | 995 | $55,511.85 |
Form 4 filings are routine transactions. Scheduled sales (10b5-1 plans) are normal and not signals.
11. Institutional 13F holdings
No recent activity
These are 45-day lagged filings (SEC requirement). Position changes happened in the past.
12. Earnings this week
No recent activity
Earnings dates are estimates and may shift. EPS estimates are consensus, not predictions.