RESEARCH REPORT
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
PYPL
$57.01
As of 2026-11-01
Research note — 2026-11-01. Educational analysis, not financial advice.
The one-line version
PayPal Holdings, Inc. trades near $57.01 on a trailing multiple of about 10.9x versus its own 5-year median near 11.0x, against contested Street targets and the usual concentration and execution risks. That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
1. What you're paying
| Now | Its own 5-year median | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | ~10.9 | ~11.0 | -1% |
| P/E (forward) | ~9.7 | — | — |
| EPS (TTM) | 5.24 | — | — |
| Gross margin | 40.5% | — | — |
What that means in plain terms: the gap versus the company's own history is the growth or durability the market is already pricing. It is not automatically wrong — it is the bet.
Fair-value anchors on file:
- 5-year median P/E multiple: $57.87 — Applies the 5-year median multiple (11.0x) to trailing EPS.
- Street mean target: $57.10 — Average published analyst target.
- Street target midpoint: $58.00 — Midpoint of $36.00–$80.00 published range.
Street targets run from $36.00 to $80.00. A wide spread means the name is contested, not consensus.
2. What the bulls are counting on
- Street coverage and recent filings supply the constructive case; pull the latest 10-Q for segment detail.
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
3. What the bears see
- Multiple risk: paying above the company's own history embeds growth that still has to show up in the numbers.
- Concentration and execution: watch customer, geography, and product-cycle dependency in the next filings.
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
4. What would have to be true
For the stock to justify ~10.9x rather than its 5-year ~11.0x, roughly all of the following need to neutral:
- Growth or margin durability shows up in the next several reports, not just in narrative.
- Key revenue concentrations survive competitive and regulatory pressure.
- Execution on the current product or services cycle stays on schedule.
- The Street target range compresses as results clarify the contested assumptions.
Ask yourself honestly: how many of those would you bet on individually? Multiply your answers together.
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
5. What to watch next
- Next earnings date: 1793104200
- Trailing and forward multiples versus the company's own history
- Segment growth rates in the next 10-Q / earnings release
- Material Form 4 and 13F changes
- Whether the Street high-to-low target spread narrows or widens
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
6. What this note does not do
It doesn't tell you to buy or sell. It won't, ever.
You have the valuation in context, the strongest version of both cases, and the specific assumptions the current price depends on. What you do with that depends on your time horizon, your existing exposure, your risk tolerance, and what else you could do with the money — none of which we know.
If you want someone to tell you what to do, you want a licensed financial adviser, and that is a genuinely reasonable thing to want.
Educational and informational purposes only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. GetStockReport is not a registered investment adviser. Figures are as of 2026-11-01 and go stale quickly — verify against primary sources before acting. All investments carry risk including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
8. Analyst ratings & targets
No recent activity
Analyst opinions change frequently. Past upgrades do not predict future returns.
9. Important news
Nov 4, 2026|HP Inc. Looks Outside Tech, Tapping Pharma Heavyweight as New CEO(Yahoo)
HP Inc. stock was gaining on the appointment of Emma Walmsley as its next chief executive.
Nov 4, 2026|Freedom Broker cuts PayPal to Hold as branded checkout stalls(Yahoo)
Investing.com -- Freedom Broker downgraded PayPal to Hold from Buy and cut its price target to $63 from $72 in a note Wednesday, saying the payments company’s branded checkout business has failed to reaccelerate.
Nov 4, 2026|Block Soars 14% on Raised 2026 Outlook, Says AI Shift Has “Meaningfully Crossed the Chasm”(Yahoo)
Key TakeawaysBlock shares jumped 14% on a strong third quarter and higher 2026 guidance. Its first 2027 outlook calls for at least 15% gross profit growth and a 32% adjusted operating margin.
Nov 4, 2026|Justt Launches 'Flows,' Its New Chargeback Automation Engine(Yahoo)
Justt, the AI-native platform for enterprise chargeback management, today announced three upgrades to its platform: Justt Flows, a no-code automation engine for alerts and chargebacks; Consistent Disputers, which identifies cardholders who dispute purchases again and again; and PayPal Alerts, which gives merchants pre-chargeback warnings that card-network alert vendors cannot see. Together, they extend Justt from fighting chargebacks to both preventing them and acting on what they reveal.
Nov 4, 2026|Why Is Fiserv Stock Going Up?(Yahoo)
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
News headlines are reported as-is. Verify important claims with original sources.
10. Insider Form 4 activity
| Date | Executive | Action | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | Keller Frank (Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal) | Sell | 732 | $40,530.84 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Natali Chris (SVP, Chief Accounting Officer) | Sell | 2,727 | $0 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Natali Chris (SVP, Chief Accounting Officer) | Sell | 1,291 | $72,425.1 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Natali Chris (SVP, Chief Accounting Officer) | Sell | 2,727 | $0 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Keller Frank (Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal) | Sell | 1,639 | $0 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Keller Frank (Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal) | Sell | 907 | $50,882.7 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Keller Frank (Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal) | Sell | 1,639 | $0 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Webster Aaron (EVP, Global Chief Risk Officer) | Sell | 5,900 | $0 |
Form 4 filings are routine transactions. Scheduled sales (10b5-1 plans) are normal and not signals.
11. Institutional 13F holdings
No recent activity
These are 45-day lagged filings (SEC requirement). Position changes happened in the past.
12. Earnings this week
No recent activity
Earnings dates are estimates and may shift. EPS estimates are consensus, not predictions.