RESEARCH REPORT
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY
$1,417.54
As of 2026-11-01
Research note — 2026-11-01. Educational analysis, not financial advice.
The one-line version
Eli Lilly and Company trades near $1,417.54 on a trailing multiple of about 46.0x versus its own 5-year median near 34.7x, against contested Street targets and the usual concentration and execution risks. That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
1. What you're paying
| Now | Its own 5-year median | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | ~46.0 | ~34.7 | +33% |
| P/E (forward) | ~28.7 | — | — |
| EPS (TTM) | 30.81 | — | — |
| Gross margin | 83.6% | — | — |
What that means in plain terms: the gap versus the company's own history is the growth or durability the market is already pricing. It is not automatically wrong — it is the bet.
Fair-value anchors on file:
- 5-year median P/E multiple: $1,069.51 — Applies the 5-year median multiple (34.7x) to trailing EPS.
- Street mean target: $1,403.64 — Average published analyst target.
- Street target midpoint: $1,290.00 — Midpoint of $930.00–$1,650.00 published range.
Street targets run from $930.00 to $1,650.00. A wide spread means the name is contested, not consensus.
2. What the bulls are counting on
- After Eli Lilly’s Explosive Earnings Report, Is It Too Late to transact in the Stock?
- Prediction: $100 per Month Invested in Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Will Be Worth This Much by 2030
- Eli Lilly Rallies 11% in a Week as Q3 Sales Jump 39%, “Exceeding Our Prior Expectations”
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
3. What the bears see
- Eli Lilly Soars 11% in a Week on a $5.5 Billion Guidance Raise: “Beating on the Up”
- Elon Musk Says Eli Lilly Has ‘Some Banger Drugs Coming Out’ After CEO Dave Ricks Bets Against Vinod Khosla's Big Biotech Skepticism
- Cathie Wood Loads Up On TEM, ILMN And Biotech Stocks — But Pares Stake In This Pharma Giant That Had A Blowout Q3
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
4. What would have to be true
For the stock to justify ~46.0x rather than its 5-year ~34.7x, roughly all of the following need to neutral:
- Growth or margin durability shows up in the next several reports, not just in narrative.
- Key revenue concentrations survive competitive and regulatory pressure.
- Execution on the current product or services cycle stays on schedule.
- The Street target range compresses as results clarify the contested assumptions.
Ask yourself honestly: how many of those would you bet on individually? Multiply your answers together.
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
5. What to watch next
- Next earnings date: 1793277000
- Trailing and forward multiples versus the company's own history
- Segment growth rates in the next 10-Q / earnings release
- Material Form 4 and 13F changes
- Whether the Street high-to-low target spread narrows or widens
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
6. What this note does not do
It doesn't tell you to buy or sell. It won't, ever.
You have the valuation in context, the strongest version of both cases, and the specific assumptions the current price depends on. What you do with that depends on your time horizon, your existing exposure, your risk tolerance, and what else you could do with the money — none of which we know.
If you want someone to tell you what to do, you want a licensed financial adviser, and that is a genuinely reasonable thing to want.
Educational and informational purposes only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. GetStockReport is not a registered investment adviser. Figures are as of 2026-11-01 and go stale quickly — verify against primary sources before acting. All investments carry risk including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
8. Analyst ratings & targets
No recent activity
Analyst opinions change frequently. Past upgrades do not predict future returns.
9. Important news
Nov 4, 2026|Novo Nordisk Stock Jumps 6% as Wegovy Hits a Stunning 80% Milestone(Yahoo)
Novo Nordisk shares surged Wednesday on a single metric from the Wegovy earnings call that suggested the oral pill is reshaping the obesity market faster than Wall Street expected, even as prices fall and a rival closes in.
Nov 4, 2026|CNS Summit Announces Sanofi as No. 1 in the 2026 Digital Innovation Index(Yahoo)
Sanofi ranked first in the 2026 CNS Summit Digital Innovation Index, developed in collaboration with IDEA Pharma, a division of SAI MedPartners, placing in the top three in all three categories. The rankings were revealed today on the CNS Summit 2026 main stage at Encore Boston Harbor.
Nov 4, 2026|Novo’s Comeback Gets a Pill-Shaped Boost as Wegovy Starts to Bite Back(Yahoo)
Novo Nordisk finally has some momentum again. Its Wegovy pill is selling faster than expected, lifting the company’s outlook and giving the Danish drugmaker a credible route back into an obesity market that Eli Lilly has spent the past two years making its own.
Nov 4, 2026|National Advertising Division Recommends Good Life Discontinue Health Benefit and Personalization Claims for Compounded Tirzepatide+ Products(Yahoo)
In a challenge brought by Eli Lilly and Company, BBB National Programs’ National Advertising Division recommended that Good Life Meds, LLC discontinue the challenged express health benefit and personalization claims for its compounded Tirzepatide+ products and modify its advertising to avoid conveying unsupported implied claims about product safety, efficacy, weight loss results, and personalization.New York, NY, Nov. 04, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In a challenge brought by Eli Lilly and Company,
Nov 4, 2026|Is Eli Lilly Stock Increasing Your Market Risk?(Yahoo)
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
News headlines are reported as-is. Verify important claims with original sources.
10. Insider Form 4 activity
| Date | Executive | Action | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Skovronsky Daniel (EVP, CS&PO & Pres. LRL) | Sell | 119 | $0 |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Hakim Anat (EVP, GC & Secretary) | Sell | 5,000 | $7.0M |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Montarce Lucas (EVP & CFO) | Sell | 1,610 | $0 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Montarce Lucas (EVP & CFO) | Sell | 677.593 | $960,515.18 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Montarce Lucas (EVP & CFO) | Sell | 1,610 | $0 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Hernandez Edgardo (EVP & Pres., Mfg. Operations) | Sell | 2,530 | $0 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Hernandez Edgardo (EVP & Pres., Mfg. Operations) | Sell | 1,122.902 | $1.6M |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Hernandez Edgardo (EVP & Pres., Mfg. Operations) | Sell | 2,530 | $0 |
Form 4 filings are routine transactions. Scheduled sales (10b5-1 plans) are normal and not signals.
11. Institutional 13F holdings
| Fund | Shares | Position | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 73,933,853 | $79.5B | — |
| State Street | 36,215,754 | $43.4B | — |
| BlackRock | 24,025,152 | $21.8B | — |
These are 45-day lagged filings (SEC requirement). Position changes happened in the past.
12. Earnings this week
No recent activity
Earnings dates are estimates and may shift. EPS estimates are consensus, not predictions.