RESEARCH REPORT
Costco Wholesale Corporation
COST
$1,012.28
As of 2026-11-01
Research note — 2026-11-01. Educational analysis, not financial advice.
The one-line version
Costco Wholesale Corporation trades near $1,012.28 on a trailing multiple of about 48.8x versus its own 5-year median near 43.6x, against contested Street targets and the usual concentration and execution risks. That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
1. What you're paying
| Now | Its own 5-year median | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | ~48.8 | ~43.6 | +12% |
| P/E (forward) | ~40.4 | — | — |
| EPS (TTM) | 20.76 | — | — |
| Gross margin | 12.8% | — | — |
What that means in plain terms: the gap versus the company's own history is the growth or durability the market is already pricing. It is not automatically wrong — it is the bet.
Fair-value anchors on file:
- 5-year median P/E multiple: $906.17 — Applies the 5-year median multiple (43.6x) to trailing EPS.
- Street mean target: $1,067.59 — Average published analyst target.
- Street target midpoint: $1,042.50 — Midpoint of $770.00–$1,315.00 published range.
Street targets run from $770.00 to $1,315.00. A wide spread means the name is contested, not consensus.
2. What the bulls are counting on
- Housing and Food Now Take Nearly Half of What Americans Spend, the Most in 15 Years
- Costco Is Up 19% in 2026 as It Reinvests Tariff Refunds “to Give Value Back to Our Members”
- Stock Market Today, Oct. 30: Amazon Misses Revenue and Earnings Expectations
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
3. What the bears see
- Levi Strauss Faces Class Action Lawsuit Over Tariff Refunds
- $100 Invested In Costco Wholesale 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
- How New Rules And Robotaxi Pressure At Uber Technologies (UBER) Has Changed Its securities research Story
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
4. What would have to be true
For the stock to justify ~48.8x rather than its 5-year ~43.6x, roughly all of the following need to neutral:
- Growth or margin durability shows up in the next several reports, not just in narrative.
- Key revenue concentrations survive competitive and regulatory pressure.
- Execution on the current product or services cycle stays on schedule.
- The Street target range compresses as results clarify the contested assumptions.
Ask yourself honestly: how many of those would you bet on individually? Multiply your answers together.
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
5. What to watch next
- Next earnings date: 2026-12-10
- Trailing and forward multiples versus the company's own history
- Segment growth rates in the next 10-Q / earnings release
- Material Form 4 and 13F changes
- Whether the Street high-to-low target spread narrows or widens
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
6. What this note does not do
It doesn't tell you to buy or sell. It won't, ever.
You have the valuation in context, the strongest version of both cases, and the specific assumptions the current price depends on. What you do with that depends on your time horizon, your existing exposure, your risk tolerance, and what else you could do with the money — none of which we know.
If you want someone to tell you what to do, you want a licensed financial adviser, and that is a genuinely reasonable thing to want.
Educational and informational purposes only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. GetStockReport is not a registered investment adviser. Figures are as of 2026-11-01 and go stale quickly — verify against primary sources before acting. All investments carry risk including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
8. Analyst ratings & targets
No recent activity
Analyst opinions change frequently. Past upgrades do not predict future returns.
9. Important news
Nov 4, 2026|Costco (COST) Rises Higher Than Market: Key Facts(Yahoo)
The latest trading day saw Costco (COST) settling at $1, representing a +2.67% change from its previous close.
Nov 4, 2026|Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports October Sales Results(Yahoo)
ISSAQUAH, Wash., Nov. 04, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Costco Wholesale Corporation (“Costco” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: COST) today reported net sales of $24.50 billion for the retail month of October, the four weeks ended November 1, 2026, an increase of 12.6 percent from $21.75 billion last year. Net sales for the first nine weeks were $54.52 billion, an increase of 12.8 percent from $48.33 billion last year. Comparable sales were as follows: 4 Weeks 9 WeeksU.S.12.6% 12.5%Canada4.9% 5.7%Other Int
Nov 4, 2026|Is Dollar General Stock a Buy at Its Current Valuation?(Yahoo)
Dollar General trades at a discount to industry peers, while store upgrades, expansion and digital growth bolster its appeal despite lingering cost pressures.
Nov 4, 2026|Costco (COST) Stock Looks Rich Despite Its Healthcare Push(Yahoo)
Costco Wholesale has rewarded long term holders with a strong run, which puts a bright spotlight on whether the current share price lines up with what its earnings can justify. With the stock now trading above US$1,000, the key issue for you is how much of Costco Wholesale's earnings power is already reflected in that price. Over the past 5 years, Costco Wholesale has delivered a 112.7% share price gain, so a lot now rides on whether that rise is fully backed by the earnings the business...
Nov 4, 2026|Costco’s Capital Preservation Function Will Be on Display Over the Next Few Weeks(Yahoo)
Costco has outrun a falling market while trading at multiples that price in perfection, and the next few weeks will reveal whether its loyal membership base and defensive reputation can justify a valuation that leaves almost no room for error.
News headlines are reported as-is. Verify important claims with original sources.
10. Insider Form 4 activity
| Date | Executive | Action | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sullivan John Christopher (Executive VP) | Sell | 4,552 | $0 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sullivan John Christopher (Executive VP) | Sell | 572.834 | $583,265.31 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sullivan John Christopher (Executive VP) | Sell | 647.297 | $659,084.28 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sullivan John Christopher (Executive VP) | Sell | 975.02 | $992,775.11 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sullivan John Christopher (Executive VP) | Sell | 732.304 | $745,639.26 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sullivan John Christopher (Executive VP) | Sell | 835.794 | $851,013.81 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Self Adam Webb (Executive Vice President) | Sell | 61.663 | $62,785.88 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Self Adam Webb (Executive Vice President) | Sell | 64.211 | $65,380.28 |
Form 4 filings are routine transactions. Scheduled sales (10b5-1 plans) are normal and not signals.
11. Institutional 13F holdings
| Fund | Shares | Position | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 39,170,487 | $33.8B | — |
| State Street | 18,384,951 | $17.2B | — |
| BlackRock | 12,297,210 | $10.5B | — |
| BlackRock Institutional Trust | 272,970 | $43.7M | — |
These are 45-day lagged filings (SEC requirement). Position changes happened in the past.
12. Earnings this week
No recent activity
Earnings dates are estimates and may shift. EPS estimates are consensus, not predictions.